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The HSA industry has been a Wall Street darling due to the strong secular tailwinds that have historically supported the industry. As employers have increasingly pushed health expenses to employees through high deductible healthcare plans HDPA , HSAs have grown exponentially as they offer a way to spend pre-tax dollars on healthcare needs. When employees face more of the burden of their healthcare costs, these HSAs make a lot of sense.
Webster Bank , or as sources of interest income for companies that are able to custody these deposits such as HealthEquity HQY.
Notably, all of our checks in the market suggest that Benefit Wallet does not enjoy the same economic arrangements as HQY and therefore does not earn any interest income from its HSA deposits.
So while many high profile HSA players enjoy two sources of income interest income plus administrative fees , our work suggests that Benefit Wallet only enjoys the latter. This entire analysis, however, was predicated on a faulty account count at Benefit Wallet.
We believe Conduent bulls and the sell side misunderstand the true active account balance at Benefit Wallet. As a result, we believe investors are potentially substantially overestimating the number of active accounts that Benefit Wallet holds. Notably, JPM also appears to have massively overstated Benefit Wallet accounts in a July 31, , note suggesting that the market is clueless with respect to the true size of Benefit Wallet:.
In the K, the stark reality of the value of Benefit Wallet to Conduent started to finally shine through — and the picture was not pretty. It seems as if the base account level that firms are using in their models is just flat out incorrect. We also think the per account valuation that bulls use to value Benefit Wallet is starkly out of line. We have reviewed numerous transactions in the HSA space i. We believe that this valuation disconnect is one of the main reasons that Conduent has not been more proactive about selling Benefit Wallet.
We think this position is potentially disingenuous. We think Conduent investors will soon realize they own a portfolio of low-quality, low-value add contracts that have been optically dressed up through aggressive earnings adjustments. It is worth pointing out that transportation and human resources are two company segments that are amongst the most exciting to Conduent bulls.
In other words, Conduent sold some of its highest margin business segments for only 6. What does this say about the value of the entire company? We seriously doubt this will play out and believe Conduent is being extremely aggressive with its earnings adjustments and forecasts.
Source: Friendly Bear analysis, Conduent investor day presentation. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.
I am not receiving compensation for it other than from Seeking Alpha. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. All information for this article was derived from publicly available information. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence into these factors. This article represents the opinion of the author as of the date of this article. The information set forth in this article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
This article contains certain "forward-looking statements," which may be identified by the use of such words as "believe," "expect," "anticipate," "should," "planned," "estimated," "potential," "outlook," "forecast," "plan" and other similar terms. All are subject to various factors, any or all of which could cause actual events to differ materially from projected events. This article is based upon information reasonably available to the author and obtained from sources the author believes to be reliable; however, such information and sources cannot be guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness.
This article reflects the author's opinion at the time of publication. The author makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information set forth in this article and undertakes no duty to update its contents.
The author encourages all readers to do their own due diligence. The Friendly Bear 2. This article was written by. The Friendly Bear. Box Faribault, MN Top Class Actions Legal Statement.
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MMC Group, LP, et al., is currently pending in the Sacramento County Superior Court, Case No. The lawsuit alleges the following violations against MMC Group and/or . Feb 13, · The lawsuit explains that Conduent, through its Direct Express trademark, administers federal benefits payments nationwide to benefit recipients of at least nine federal . Jun 26, · The trial for Xerox/Conduent is set for November. The analyst believes that the company cannot afford a public trial and a possible jury verdict which could award triple .